Record Setting 2013 Projected By US Dairy Export Council

By Sam Lewis

Forecast for 2014: more growth due to increased global demand

The president of the US Dairy Export Council (USDEC), Tom Suber, spoke to the attendees of the council’s annual board meeting in Chicago last week. He explained to those gathered that US exporters have made the most of 2013. By taking advantage of the reduced supply of other countries, favorable pricing, and a steady global demand, the USDEC predicts dairy exports to total $6.5 billion in 2013. This marks an increase of more than 25 percent versus 2012, and the fourth consecutive year in which US dairy exports have experienced record growth. That is, barring any adverse conditions or market changes.

“Reliance upon exports is not just an aspiration in our industry. It’s a reality,” Suber says. “Looking ahead, the reality is that exports must not just continue, but continue to grow. Put another way, exports must grow or our industry largely stagnates.” According to USDEC, more than 15 percent of US dairy production is exported.

Also speaking to the attendees, but in a separate address, Tim Hunt, global dairy strategist for Rabobank, says a global shortage of dairy products is expected to continue. This will drive expected growth of dairy products in the US next year. “In the next six months, the United States is likely to be the region with the most additional supply available to grow exports,” Hunt says. “In addition, the United States looks to be entering a period of enhanced competitiveness.”

The keynote speaker was Yale economist Jeffrey Garten, who also served as undersecretary of commerce for international trade in the Clinton administration. He predicts “a third industrial revolution led by the US.” The country will benefit from this because of increased energy independence, innovative partnerships, accompanied by technological savvy. “It’s a world of complexity, of big change, where there are lots and lots of risks and unknowns,” says Garten. “But as your industry has shown, it’s a world where those who are strategic and understand the risks can do extremely well.”

It’s hard to imagine something as significant as an industrial revolution — a complete change in thoughts and processes as to how producing a good in an industry is approached — happening in the US dairy industry. This rings especially true as the US is holding what seems to be a stronghold on the industry on the global scale. Still, if the demand keeps increasing exponentially, the industry will have to find new ways to make the product as well as ship them efficiently on a much larger scale.